Saturday, 9 February 2008

Russia: The Playground Bully.


Apparently Russia has again sent another of its Tupolev bombers across International waters. It appears to be similar to the recent situation we had in Britain towards the end of last year.
The Japanese were this time the recipients of this spectacle. According to the BBC report the Japanese scrambled 22 interceptors to tangle with the bomber. Does that not seem a touch over hasty? In modern warfare 4 fighter aircraft would still have a fanciable advantage over 8 bombers, let alone 1 Russian throwback from the 1950's.
Nonetheless the report states that the Japanese were, quite rightly, rattled by this incursion. So what is Russia up to?
In the report it links a connection between this and the debate over territory. Russia having taken Japanese land at the end of WW2 (something they are still officially fighting). A plausible and certainly interesting proposition, especially if we are to consider Russia as the playground bully that the world media would have us believe. I cannot help but think that the media is selling Russia short.
Some bullies will beat you when no one is looking. This is certainly annoying, but bearable. A show of strength can soon send them running. In Russia's case they are a lot more cunning. They are the bully that instigates situations waiting for a reaction. The placer of fake evidence to make you look like the aggressor. The mental bully who knows that with enough spite and malice, they can destroy you from the inside.
By testing the limits of International boundries with one bomber the Russians have managed to create a superb defence for themselves. They can be testing all manner of technological devices upon that aircraft, bring it as close as they can to a variety of countries and know that they are immune from any contact. The reason for this is the current etiquette for "developed" nations.
If Britain decided to strike and blow the Tupolev out of the sky, the world would have viewed such an action as barbaric and hasty. Russia could proclaim to the world media that their bomber was lost, and Britain would be firmly in the global doghouse. The same is true for Japan. Repeated incursions there from Russian aircraft which then return without any retalliation can easily shake the public nerve. If the people of Japan lose faith in their government and its border policy, the knock on effect can be significant.
The Russian angle from this is naturally unknown to most. It does appear that Russia has been seeking a way to expand. In 2007 they spent time, money and resources on placing a Russian flag beneath the North Pole. It is claimed that they believe this to also be part of their territory. Whether there is any validity in this, or even any point in proclaiming ownership, is not the point. The point is to show the rest of the world Russia's might. It is in essence a political muscle flex. By sending the Tupolev bomber out across International Waters the Russians are simply assesing their own reach. They are no doubt testing new technology and in a lesser way highlighting other nations' reactions to incursion. But on the whole I still think it is no more than the Big Bear waking from a dormant period.

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